Finding Value Bets
The key to profitable sports betting: identifying mispriced lines.
Profitable sports betting isn't about picking winners—it's about finding value. A value bet is one where the odds offered are better than the true probability of that outcome occurring. Finding value consistently is the only path to long-term profit.
What Is Value?
If odds are 2.50 (+150) and you think team wins 45% of the time: (0.45 × 2.50) - 1 = +0.125 = 12.5% edge
Good to Know
Why Value Matters
Sportsbooks aim to set lines that attract equal action on both sides. When lines are inefficient, value opportunities emerge:
- Public overreacts to recent news or results
- Sharp money moves lines, creating value on the other side
- Sportsbooks make mistakes, especially in smaller markets
- Information asymmetry—you know something the market doesn't
Sources of Value
1. Line Shopping
Different books offer different odds. Comparing lines is free money:
Line Shopping Example
| Sportsbook | Team A Spread | Implied Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Book 1 | -3.5 (-110) | Standard |
| Book 2 | -3 (-110) | +1.5% edge vs Book 1 |
| Book 3 | -3.5 (-105) | +2% edge on vig |
Always bet at the book with the best number
Strategy Insight
2. Contrarian Betting
When the public heavily backs one side, value often appears on the other:
- Public loves favorites and overs
- Public bets based on name recognition and recent form
- Books adjust lines to balance action, creating value
3. Situational Angles
- Scheduling spots – Teams on second of back-to-back, long road trips
- Motivation gaps – Playoff team vs. eliminated team late season
- Weather impacts – Wind in outdoor games, altitude effects
- Injury news – Move quickly when news breaks before lines adjust
4. Model-Based Betting
Build your own projections and compare to market odds:
Your model gives Team A higher probability than the market implies.
Avoiding False Value
Warning
- Public numbers moved for good reason (injury info)
- Steam moves from sharp syndicates
- Outdated statistics not reflecting current form
- Small sample sizes in obscure leagues
Expected Value Calculation
Positive EV = bet is profitable long-term
Practical Value Finding Process
- Create your own projections – Don't just guess, model outcomes
- Compare to market odds – Calculate implied probability
- Identify discrepancies – Look for gaps of 3%+ for value
- Line shop – Find the best number available
- Size appropriately – Larger edge = larger bet (Kelly Criterion)
- Track results – Did your projections hold up over time?
Strategy Insight
Realistic Expectations
Even professional bettors:
- Win only 52-55% against the spread
- Experience long losing streaks
- Make thin margins (2-5% ROI is excellent)
- Rely on volume over edge size
Key Takeaways
- 1Value betting means odds offered exceed true probability
- 2Line shopping across books is the easiest value source
- 3Contrarian angles work when public overreacts
- 4Build models and compare to market implied probabilities
- 5Even pros only achieve 52-55% win rates—edge is thin